Just days before a final
nuclear deal deadline
on June 30, Iranian officials in Tehran — where I was attending a
conference — were excited that their moral stance renouncing nuclear
weapons capability would now be appreciated. With portraits of the
Ayatollahs, Khamenei and Khomeini, towering over him, the President of
the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani,
declared
that Iran would not “hand over its secrets” to others under any
additional protocol or any other treaty. Mr. Rouhani who completed two
years as President in mid-June, added that while sanctions had had their
effect, they had not succeeded in making Iran surrender. He vowed to
have the sanctions removed by the UN Security Council.
The Defence Minister, Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan, insisted that
the nuclear deal would not be signed at any price but with “dignity and
power”. The Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Brigadier
General Massoud Jazayeri, said that Iran would not provide access to
military sites and that nuclear fuel would be produced in Iran.
Stances to audiences
It is clear that assurances are being given by Iranian leaders to the
country that the contents of the final deal would not be a sell out but
have the best national interests in mind. While hardliners have been
asked to keep quiet, a fiat has been issued not to publicly discuss the
pros and cons of the nuclear deal. An air of optimism can be gauged from
the hard bargaining with visiting foreign delegations who are now
queuing up for contracts in anticipation of the sanctions being lifted.
The Iranian Ambassador to India, Gholamreza Ansari, recently said in New
Delhi that Iran had not gone for negotiations due to sanctions. “We
have always been ready for talks in 2003 and 2010 and are committed to
the Non Proliferation Treaty,” was his line.
Earlier this month in New York at the 2015 Nuclear Non Proliferation
Treaty Review Conference, the United States Secretary of State,
John Kerry, had said:
“The United States and our P5plus One partners have come together with
Iran around the series of parameters that if finalised and implemented
will close off all of Iran’s possible pathways to the nuclear material
required for a nuclear weapon and give the international community the
confidence that it needs to know that Iran’s nuclear programme is indeed
exclusively peaceful.”
Yet, despite the air of confidence, one has to look at the ground
realities and see how protracted sanctions and a freezing of assets have
damaged the Iranian economy. Oil exports have halved since 2012.
Coupled with a decline in oil prices and a high cost of production of
oil when compared with Saudi Arabia, the GDP has contracted from $568
billion to $406 billion. The GDP growth rate, which was negative, has
picked up and is now between 1 and 2 per cent. Inflation has declined
from 35 per cent to 25 per cent. According to the Tehran Times,
India dropped crude imports to zero in March 2015, for the first time in
a decade, and under pressure from the United States as a push for the
Interim Framework Agreement of April 2, 2015 at Lausanne. Sanctions have
worked in slowing but not halting Iran’s nuclear capability.
Sticking points
According to the Iranians, the three sticking points are still: timings
of sanction relief; access and verification of compliance and a
mechanism for restoring sanctions in the event of a breach. Additional
points and issues are the number of centrifuges to be kept at Fordow, an
invulnerable military facility and the site of Iran’s second pilot
enrichment plant, and the amount of uranium permitted for enrichment for
research and development. There are also differences within P5+1, and
between Russia and China and other P5 members. The P5+1 (the United
States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China, facilitated
by the European Union) has been engaged in serious and substantive
negotiations with Iran with the goal of reaching a verifiable diplomatic
resolution that would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. For
example, Russia and China do not favour an automatic, snap-back
mechanism for non-compliance. However, the mother of all differences is
within the U.S.: between the Republican Party-dominated U.S. Congress
and U.S. President Barack Obama. This has been influenced by the
position taken by the staunch U.S. ally and Israeli Prime Minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu. The U.S. does not want and will not let Iran have
the nuclear bomb while Israel insists that it should not even have the
capability to make one. But for the present, Israel’s stand does not
count. What the eventual nuclear deal will achieve if all conditions are
met is that Iran’s capability to make a bomb will be extended from the
current 2-3 months to 12 months. The deal is in arresting Iran’s
enrichment capability so as to fix Iran’s breakout time to 12 months.
Hurdles to cross
Assuming that the Iranians accept the condition for their recessed
nuclear capabilities for civilian use, with a window open for reverting
to the bomb path at some cost, and further that they agree to play by
the rules of the game, there still is the hurdle of the Iran Nuclear
Agreement Review Act of 2015 passed by the U.S. Congress. This is
heavily influenced by the Zionist lobby and Republicans who control
Congress. There is a chance they may block the deal. In addition to all
this, Mr. Obama is concerned with his political legacy. He knows that a
Democrat President, Jimmy Carter lost Iran; he wants to be the Democrat
who brought it back on board.
It is reasonable to predict that other members of P5+1 may simply use
the U.S. Congressional attempt to block the nuclear deal with Iran as a
pretext to enter into independent agreements with Iran to lift
sanctions. This may even dissuade the U.S. Congress from doing so. It
has consistently baulked at a rapprochement with Iran. In 2003, Tehran
was close to a deal with the Europeans but the U.S. Congress spiked it.
Iran could have been capped with 1,000 centrifuges against the present
19,000 centrifuges. In 2010, the Brazil-Turkey plan of taking away
Iran’s uranium for enrichment in France or Germany was also stymied by
the U.S. Congress.
Michael Krepon, the co-founder/senior associate of the Stimson Center,
Washington, has said that the deal will weaken global norms for
non-proliferation but U.S. Congress killing a deal that constrains Iran
will only lead to worse consequences for proliferation. A rejection by
the U.S. Congress will lead to an expulsion of inspectors, increase
enrichment and possible air strikes.
Impact on West Asia
If the deal breaks up and Iran returns to its nuclear weapons programme,
it will have a cascading effect on Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. The
spread of enrichment plans without safeguards in West Asia will spell
doom for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. With
the Islamic State crawling around, it also poses a major risk for
nuclear terrorism. Until last year, Saudi Arabia was cocksure that
Pakistan would lend a couple of nuclear bombs to it. The former Saudi
Arabian chief of intelligence, Prince Turki Bin Faisal Al Saud, recently
said in South Korea: “Whatever the Iranians have, we will have too.”
After events in Yemen, Islamabad may not be in a mood to oblige.
There are avid votaries of the military option in Israel and the U.S.
But they are divided over the feasibility of unilateral military action
against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel’s former Mossad Chief Meir
Dagan says the military option is unviable and catastrophic, while the
former Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, says the
military option is on the table. As a regular visitor to Israel, I know
discretion in Tel Aviv is increasingly becoming the better part of
valour. Incredible as it may sound, at one time, the thinking in the
U.S. was that living with a nuclear Iran was better than a military
option to denuclearise it. It planned to cap Tehran’s nuclear capability
after its tests — no weaponisation, no deployment.
In 2003, U.S. President George Bush had a super majority of 771 votes in
both Houses for the invasion of Iraq. Mr. Obama does not want to
forward the nuclear deal in the works in Geneva to the U.S. Congress. He
wants to use his presidential powers to ratify it; 59 per cent of
Americans are for the deal. If it sails through, it would mark the
triumph of diplomacy over the use of military belligerence. It will not
just be a nuclear deal but will have wider implications for the world in
the form of a more normal relationship between the U.S. and Iran after
nearly four and a half decades of hostility. India will also be a
beneficiary.
The grapevine in Tehran was that the nuclear deal may miss the June 30
deadline but will be stitched up in an extra week or two after settling
the outstanding sticking points. We have to wait and watch.
(Gen. Ashok K. Mehta is the convener of an India-Pakistan and India-Afghanistan Track II process.)
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-narrowing-persian-gulf/article7354682.ece